Samet Akaydin

32 yrs · Centre-back · Türkiye
Caykur Rizespor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€319k – €1.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€309k – €710k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€302k – €819k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€702k – €391k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€319k – €1.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€309k – €710k
Projected value (24 months)€302k – €819k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Samet Akaydin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 17

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €635k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-61% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2571 (84% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
31 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1273
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€302k – €819k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output up 62% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -52% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Caykur RizesporSuper LigCB29257184%310.140.14127312290.40
2024/25Caykur RizesporSuper LigCB14100131%100.090.09130012280.39
2024/25FenerbahceSuper LigCB537412%100.240.06126415030.39
2023/24FenerbahceSuper LigCB1056817%000.000.03131615830.45
2023/24Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1CB636516%000.000.03121214530.42
2022/23FenerbahceSuper LigCB17151547%000.000.02127915160.50
2022/23Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB16141744%200.130.11130114100.50
2021/22Adana DemirsporSuper LigCB33295286%200.060.06125312730.42

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce2135001651
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos319501—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFenerbahce145001394
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce2180001538

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Trent Sainsbury
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€750k€600kfell
Aaron Appindangoyé
Super Lig · 2024
32€800k€800kflat
Silvije Begic
Premier Liga · 2024
31€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Nicolas N'Koulou
Super Lig · 2024
34€450k€450kflat
Daniel Wass
Superliga · 2023
34€1.5M€650kfell
Guilherme
Super Lig · 2021
31€850k€1.2Mrose
Igor Smolnikov
Premier Liga · 2022
34€800k€400kfell
Georgios Tzavellas
Super Lig · 2021
34€1.0M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jan 2025FenerbahçeC. RizesporUnknown€2.0M
30 Jun 2024PanathinaikosFenerbahçeFree / loan€2.5M
14 Jan 2024FenerbahçePanathinaikosFree / loan€2.8M
12 Jan 2023Adana DemirsporFenerbahçe€3.7M€2.5M
22 Jan 2021A. KeciörengücüAdana Demirspor€471k€350k
8 Jul 2019SanliurfasporKeciörengücüFree / loan€100k
28 Aug 2018Sancaktepe BldSanliurfasporFree / loan€100k
20 Aug 2014ArsinsporSancaktepe BldUnknownData unavailable
5 Sept 2013Boluspor U21ArsinsporUnknownData unavailable
5 Oct 2011Idmanocagi YthBoluspor U21Free / loanData unavailable
28 Sept 2010Trabzonspor U16Idmanocagi YthFree / loanData unavailable
15 Oct 2009Idmanocagi YthTrabzonspor U16Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.