
Samet Akaydin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samet Akaydin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €635k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2571 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1273
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €302k – €819k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output up 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -52% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 29 | 2571 | 84% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1273 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 14 | 1001 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1300 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 5 | 374 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 1264 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 10 | 568 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1316 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 6 | 365 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1212 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1515 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1279 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 16 | 1417 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1301 | 1410 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2952 | 86% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1253 | 1273 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 195 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Sainsbury Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Aaron Appindangoyé Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Silvije Begic Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Super Lig · 2024 | 34 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Daniel Wass Superliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Guilherme Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €850k | €1.2M | rose |
| Igor Smolnikov Premier Liga · 2022 | 34 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Georgios Tzavellas Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2025 | Fenerbahçe | C. Rizespor | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Panathinaikos | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Fenerbahçe | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Adana Demirspor | Fenerbahçe | €3.7M | €2.5M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | A. Keciörengücü | Adana Demirspor | €471k | €350k |
| 8 Jul 2019 | Sanliurfaspor | Keciörengücü | Free / loan | €100k |
| 28 Aug 2018 | Sancaktepe Bld | Sanliurfaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 Aug 2014 | Arsinspor | Sancaktepe Bld | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Sept 2013 | Boluspor U21 | Arsinspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2011 | Idmanocagi Yth | Boluspor U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Sept 2010 | Trabzonspor U16 | Idmanocagi Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Oct 2009 | Idmanocagi Yth | Trabzonspor U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.