Nikolay Komlichenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolay Komlichenko's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1083 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1083 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.83
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €636k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; changed club; team strength up (+76 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -62% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1083 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 1083 | 40% | 5 | 5 | 0.83 | 0.54 | 1320 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 1945 | 72% | 8 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 1300 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 1253 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 1314 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 2133 | 79% | 10 | 12 | 0.93 | 0.70 | 1320 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 1719 | 64% | 8 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 1359 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 1079 | 40% | 4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 1326 | 1391 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 636 | 24% | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 1337 | 1362 | 0.63 |
| 2013/14 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | ST | 4 | 51 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.76 | 0.54 | 1442 | 1500 | 0.92 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 10 | 626 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 11 | 591 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 5 | 372 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 6 | 324 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mlada Boleslav | 3 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Mlada Boleslav | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1355 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Slovan Liberec | 5 | 375 | 3 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Slovan Liberec | 4 | 237 | 1 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2014/15 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Storm Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Jérémy Perbet Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Yevgen Seleznyov Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €4.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2024 | 33 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Davidson Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €2.8M | €3.2M | flat |
| Enner Valencia Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €2.4M | €2.5M | flat |
| Mamadou Fall Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Bernard Berisha Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Rostov | Loko Moscow | €1.5M | €3.5M |
| 9 Jul 2022 | Dynamo Moscow | Rostov | €1.5M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Rostov | Dynamo Moscow | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Moscow | Rostov | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Mlada Boleslav | Dinamo Moscow | €3.5M | €5.5M |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Krasnodar | Mlada Boleslav | €400k | €1.8M |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Mlada Boleslav | Krasnodar | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 24 Jul 2017 | Krasnodar | Mlada Boleslav | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Krasnodar 2 | Krasnodar | Unknown | €700k |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Slovan Liberec | Krasnodar 2 | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Krasnodar 2 | Slovan Liberec | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Chernomorets N. | Krasnodar 2 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 28 Jan 2015 | Krasnodar 2 | Chernomorets N. | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Krasnodar II | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Sept 2011 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.