Stijn van Gassel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stijn van Gassel's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €332k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2820 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1300
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €457k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2820 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1300 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1391 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1364 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3033 | 99% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1197 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okan Kocuk Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2019 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Kévin Olimpa Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Bahadır Güngördü Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Alexandros Tzorvas Super League 1 · 2014 | 32 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Craig Samson Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 33 | €350k | €325k | flat |
| Matt Macey Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 28 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| German Penkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Helmond Sport | Excelsior | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | VVV/Hel U19 | Helmond Sport | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | VVV/Hel U17 | VVV/Hel U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.