Okan Kocuk

31 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Samsunspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€472k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€496k – €2.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€517k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.7M – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€472k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€496k – €2.2M
Projected value (24 months)€517k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Okan Kocuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 43

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2790 (91% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1310
Opponent strength
1275
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€517k – €1.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -65% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SamsunsporSuper LigGK31279091%000.000.00127513100.40
2024/25SamsunsporSuper LigGK363240100%000.000.00128412860.39
2023/24SamsunsporSuper LigGK36324095%000.000.00130312170.45
2022/23GalatasaraySuper LigGK2953%000.000.00113415350.50
2021/22GiresunsporSuper LigGK32288084%000.000.00125312150.42
2020/21GalatasaraySuper LigGK1090025%000.000.00127014250.37
2019/20GalatasaraySuper LigGK978626%000.000.00136413840.45
2018/19BursasporSuper LigGK22198065%000.000.00138212580.58
2014/15BursasporSuper LigGK1712%000.000.00137414680.72

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingSamsunspor2180001398

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mamadou Samassa
Super Lig · 2020
30€2.4M€275kfell
Günay Güvenç
Super Lig · 2022
31€2.5M€600kfell
Sten Grytebust
Superliga · 2019
30€1.0M€700kfell
Munir El Kajoui
Super Lig · 2021
32€1.2M€1.0Mflat
Patrik Carlgren
Superliga · 2023
31€1.0M€600kfell
Vasilios Barkas
Eredivisie · 2024
30€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Markos Vellidis
Super League 1 · 2016
29€1.3M€750kfell
Sokratis Dioudis
Super League 1 · 2021
28€1.5M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023GalatasaraySamsunsporFree / loan€850k
30 Jun 2022GiresunsporGalatasarayFree / loan€1.1M
5 Jul 2021GalatasarayGiresunsporFree / loan€700k
18 Jul 2019BursasporGalatasarayFree / loan€1.3M
30 Jun 2018IstanbulsporBursasporFree / loan€750k
14 Jul 2017BursasporIstanbulsporFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2017BandirmasporBursasporFree / loan€300k
1 Aug 2016BursasporBandirmasporFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2014Bursaspor U21BursasporUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2013Bursaspor U18Bursaspor U21Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2012Bursaspor U17Bursaspor U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Bursaspor U16Bursaspor U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Bursaspor YthBursaspor U16UnknownData unavailable
12 Sept 2008M.Kemalpasa YthBursaspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.