Jeff Chabot
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jeff Chabot's performance-implied value at EUR 9.0M-27.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-17.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-13.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.7M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2296 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €13.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -59% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2296 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1487 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2274 | 74% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1482 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2707 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1520 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1806 | 59% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1530 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | CB | 11 | 483 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1456 | 1375 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CB | 4 | 208 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1527 | 1500 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1655 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1440 | 1363 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | CB | 8 | 570 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1416 | 1374 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CB | 28 | 2320 | 76% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1381 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 20 | 1565 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1317 | 1183 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 646 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 355 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 198 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Milan Bisevac Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €21.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Kevin Vogt Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Lombaerts Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Jan Vertonghen Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €23.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Davide Astori Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €7.5M | €7.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | 1.FC Köln | Stuttgart | €4.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sampdoria | 1.FC Köln | €2.5M | €5.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | 1.FC Köln | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 26 Jan 2022 | Sampdoria | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Spezia Calcio | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 24 Sept 2020 | Sampdoria | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €3.1M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Groningen | Sampdoria | €3.7M | €3.5M |
| 16 Jul 2018 | Sparta R. | FC Groningen | €1.2M | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RB Leipzig U19 | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RB Leipzig U17 | RB Leipzig U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Frankfurt U17 | RB Leipzig U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Frankfurt Yth. | Frankfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Nürnberg Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Frankfurt Yth. | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Darmstadt Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.