Nikola Milenković
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikola Milenković's performance-implied value at EUR 24.7M-45.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.4M-35.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.2M-21.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.7M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3375 (99% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1597
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.2M – €21.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 92% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR -29% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3375 | 99% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1597 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 5 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1573 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2505 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1476 | 1583 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2136 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1464 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2929 | 86% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1471 | 1470 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 34 | 3036 | 89% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1456 | 1422 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3257 | 95% | 5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1425 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 34 | 3010 | 88% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1451 | 1384 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 16 | 1255 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1479 | 1491 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 15 | 1121 | 1 | 1 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 383 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 289 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 5 | 399 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakonam Djené Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Conor Coady Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Eric Dier Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €28.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ezri Konsa Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Ben White Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Víctor Ruiz Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Jan Vertonghen Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €23.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Maximilian Kilman Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Fiorentina | Nott'm Forest | €12.3M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Partizan | Fiorentina | €5.5M | €5.0M |
| 18 Jan 2016 | Partizan U19 | Partizan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Teleoptik | Partizan U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2015 | Partizan U19 | Teleoptik | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Partizan U17 | Partizan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Teleoptik U17 | Partizan U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Partizan U15 | Partizan U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Partizan U17 | Teleoptik U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.