Fikayo Tomori
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fikayo Tomori's performance-implied value at EUR 7.6M-22.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.3M-14.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-12.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2563 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €12.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -66% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2563 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1499 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 22 | 1594 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1505 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2125 | 62% | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1458 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2764 | 81% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1455 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2719 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1454 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 17 | 1465 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1444 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1825 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 15 | 1293 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1575 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2015/16 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 1 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1662 | 1625 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 7 | 564 | 0 | 1 | 1639 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 10 | 828 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 419 | 1 | 0 | 1740 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 218 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1685 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1915 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Hull City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Benedikt Höwedes Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €13.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Ömer Toprak Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €16.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Mateo Musacchio Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €15.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Stambouli Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €9.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Chelsea | AC Milan | €35.3M | €28.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | AC Milan | Chelsea | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Chelsea | AC Milan | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Derby | Chelsea | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 6 Aug 2018 | Chelsea | Derby | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2018 | Hull City | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Chelsea | Hull City | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | €250k |
| 31 May 2017 | Brighton | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 23 Jan 2017 | Chelsea U23 | Brighton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.