Jordan Lotomba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jordan Lotomba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 921 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1301
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-139 Elo); league level down (-43 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -61% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 20 | 921 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1301 | 1423 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 6 | 488 | 16% | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 1259 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LM | 2 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1321 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 28 | 1810 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1471 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 33 | 2456 | 72% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1439 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 30 | 1780 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1420 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RB | 30 | 2128 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1414 | 1398 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1497 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 281 | 0 | 1 | 1642 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Simon Falette Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Pipa Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Martin Linnes Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Charlie Mulgrew Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Djibril Sidibé Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roderick Miranda Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Federico Ricca Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2024 | Nice | Feyenoord | €2.2M | €8.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Young Boys | Nice | €7.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lausanne-Sport | Young Boys | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Team Vaud U18 | Lausanne-Sport | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.