Marcus Edwards
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcus Edwards's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-14.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.57x the positional average in the league (1065 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.2M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1065 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1607
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €5.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -79% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1065 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | RW | 23 | 1065 | 31% | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.62 | 1607 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 6 | 106 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.21 | 1227 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 26 | 1346 | 44% | 4 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 1356 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2265 | 74% | 7 | 9 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 1383 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 18 | 1289 | 42% | 7 | 3 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 1362 | 1399 | 0.67 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RW | 12 | 520 | 17% | 3 | 3 | 1.04 | 0.33 | 1310 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 1773 | 58% | 3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1354 | 1329 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 26 | 2124 | 69% | 7 | 7 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1376 | 1418 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 25 | 1731 | 57% | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1318 | 1235 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1778 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 54 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 10 | 591 | 1 | 3 | 1552 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 530 | 1 | 1 | 1624 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 358 | 2 | 2 | 1637 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Vitória Guimarães SC | 5 | 346 | 2 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Luciano Vietto Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Alberto Bueno Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Nathaniel Méndez-Laing Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Loïc Rémy Laliga · 2018 | 31 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Floyd Ayité Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €325k | fell |
| Roger Assalé Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €6.0M | €700k | fell |
| Juanpi Laliga · 2019 | 25 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Sporting | Burnley | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Burnley | Sporting | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Sporting | Burnley | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Vit. Guimarães | Sporting | €7.8M | €13.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Tottenham U23 | Vit. Guimarães | €150k | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Excelsior | Tottenham U23 | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Aug 2018 | Tottenham U23 | Excelsior | Free / loan | €500k |
| 11 Apr 2018 | Norwich | Tottenham U23 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Jan 2018 | Tottenham U23 | Norwich | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Spurs U18 | Tottenham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Tottenham Yth. | Spurs U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.