Jarrod Bowen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jarrod Bowen's performance-implied value at EUR 22.7M-50.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-33.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.2M-19.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.65x the positional average in the league (3409 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €22.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3409 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.65
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1604
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.2M – €19.9M
Trajectory drivers: role change ST -> RW; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -61% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 38 | 3409 | 100% | 9 | 11 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 1604 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | ST | 34 | 2980 | 87% | 13 | 10 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 1558 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 34 | 3022 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 1573 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 38 | 3237 | 95% | 6 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 1567 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 36 | 2993 | 88% | 12 | 12 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 1556 | 1580 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 38 | 2577 | 75% | 8 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1567 | 1600 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | West Ham United | Premier League | RW | 13 | 921 | 27% | 1 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 1588 | 1486 | 1.14 |
| 2016/17 | Hull City | Premier League | RW | 7 | 179 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1566 | 1368 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 360 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 7 | 550 | 1 | 4 | 1567 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 184 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | West Ham United | 1 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1304 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 9 | 589 | 3 | 1 | 1525 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 300 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 68 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Hull City | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bamford Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €22.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Gylfi Sigurdsson Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Riyad Mahrez Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €50.0M | €48.0M | flat |
| Anthony Modeste Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Stefan Kießling Bundesliga · 2013 | 29 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Wilfried Zaha Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €38.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Iago Aspas Laliga · 2018 | 31 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Ivan Toney Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2020 | Hull City | West Ham | €21.3M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hull City U23 | Hull City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jul 2014 | Hereford Utd. | Hull U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Mar 2014 | Hereford U19 | Hereford Utd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.