
Ricardo Mangas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ricardo Mangas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1055 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1620
- Opponent strength
- 1288
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €809k – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; changed club; team strength up (+187 Elo); role change LW -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -62% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1055 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LB | 15 | 875 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 1288 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LB | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1229 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LW | 4 | 340 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1297 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | LM | 11 | 190 | 7% | 2 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.25 | 1240 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LM | 23 | 1907 | 62% | 1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1382 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | LM | 27 | 1860 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1421 | 1351 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | LB | 29 | 2358 | 69% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1421 | 1312 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 28 | 1966 | 64% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1358 | 1308 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | LB | 20 | 1678 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1385 | 1136 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1844 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 461 | 4 | 2 | 1337 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 364 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ewerton Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €1.8M | €4.0M | rose |
| Yevgen Makarenko Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Moritz Bauer Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
| Zé Pedro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Fininho Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Márcio Azevedo Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Michal Kadlec Super Lig · 2015 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | Spartak Moscow | Sporting | €321k | €2.5M |
| 10 Sept 2024 | Vit. Guimarães | Spartak Moscow | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Boavista | Vit. Guimarães | €900k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | G. Bordeaux | Boavista | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 3 Aug 2021 | Boavista | G. Bordeaux | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Desportivo Aves | Boavista | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Aves U23 | Desportivo Aves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Desportivo Aves | Aves U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Mirandela | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jul 2017 | Desportivo Aves | Mirandela | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2017 | Benfica B | Desportivo Aves | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Tondela U19 | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Benfica U19 | Tondela U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Ferreiras Yth. | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.