
Pedro Pereira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Pereira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €384k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2618 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1266
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €439k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-114 Elo); league level down (-234 Elo); role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -35% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 30 | 2618 | 86% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1266 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | AC Monza | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2674 | 78% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1520 | 1274 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Monza | Serie A | RM | 23 | 831 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1508 | 1428 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 26 | 1548 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1280 | 1261 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | FC Crotone | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2560 | 75% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1473 | 1253 | 0.90 |
| 2018/19 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RB | 26 | 1377 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1487 | 1322 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RM | 6 | 381 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1464 | 1342 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RB | 12 | 786 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1471 | 1414 | 0.88 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1299 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RB | 9 | 642 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1459 | 1412 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praxitelis Vouros Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Franco Romero Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Federico Álvarez Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Burak Öksüz Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Julian Lelieveld Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Laurens De Bock Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Leeroy Owusu Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Samet Akaydin Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Monza | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Alanyaspor | Monza | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 18 Aug 2022 | Monza | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica | Monza | €2.9M | €2.3M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Monza | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Benfica | Monza | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Crotone | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Benfica | Crotone | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Bristol City | Benfica | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 7 Aug 2019 | Benfica | Bristol City | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Genoa | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 24 Jan 2018 | Benfica | Genoa | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jan 2017 | Sampdoria | Benfica | €2.7M | €2.0M |
| 2 Jul 2015 | Benfica U17 | Sampdoria | €190k | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.