Justin Bijlow
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Justin Bijlow's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1395 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1521
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -53% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1395 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | GK | 16 | 1395 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1521 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1414 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 17 | 1464 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1343 | 1593 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 25 | 2250 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1317 | 1639 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 22 | 1980 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1333 | 1609 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1339 | 1457 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 7 | 630 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1342 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 16 | 1411 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1502 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1258 | 1530 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 1725 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 1340 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1495 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Rico Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergio Romero Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Yvon Mvogo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Eugenio Lamanna Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wladimiro Falcone Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Fabian Bredlow Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Zeljko Brkic Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iago Herrerín Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | Feyenoord | Genoa | €200k | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | SC Fey. Yth. | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.