Mats Knoester

27 yrs · Centre-back · Netherlands
Aberdeen FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2029
Market value
€600k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€214k – €553k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€416k – €594k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€255k – €678k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€138k – €380k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€214k – €553k
Model value (performance-implied)€416k – €594k
Projected value (24 months)€255k – €678k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mats Knoester's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 75

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average14.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €391k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationLow-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1970 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1119
Opponent strength
1188
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€255k – €678k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output down 75% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -35% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
16 (DEF)
Relative output kept
90%–275%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
75%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipCB23197066%000.000.03118811190.31
2024/25Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipCB872024%010.130.10125111860.34
2023/24Aarhus GFSuperligaCB640520%000.000.06133413560.48
2021/22Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCB31266487%000.000.02135912500.60
2020/21Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCB27198865%200.090.08136713030.56
2019/20Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCB25219694%000.000.02137013300.62
2018/19Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCB3943%000.000.11161713020.61

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC2119001373
2024/25Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC439800—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingFerencvárosi TC2210001270
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFerencvárosi TC243001419
2023/24Oddset PokalenAarhus GF428100—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFerencvárosi TC3122001324
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingFerencvárosi TC190001374
2021/22Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo14500—
2020/21Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo19000—
2019/20Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Epaminondas Pantelakis
Super League 1 · 2023
28€500k€400kfell
Tomas Brecka
Super Lig · 2021
27€775k€275kfell
Luka Gucek
Premier Liga · 2024
25€500k€300kfell
Rocky Bushiri
Scottish Premiership · 2024
25€400k€1.0Mrose
Murat Paluli
Super Lig · 2021
27€1.2M€800kfell
Kasper Larsen
Superliga · 2021
28€500k€400kfell
Flávio Ramos
Super Lig · 2020
26€400k€400kflat
Adam Tzanetopoulos
Super League 1 · 2021
26€250k€250kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Feb 2025FerencvárosAberdeen FCFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2024Aarhus GFFerencvárosFree / loan€1.0M
1 Sept 2023FerencvárosAarhus GFFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2022Heracles AlmeloFerencvárosFree / loan€900k
17 Jan 2019Feyenoord U21Heracles Almelo€150k€100k
1 Jul 2018FeyenoordFeyenoord U21Unknown€100k
1 Jul 2017Feyenoord U19FeyenoordUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2015Feyenoord U17Feyenoord U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005ARC Yth.Feyenoord YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.