
Mats Knoester
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mats Knoester's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €391k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1970 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1188
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €255k – €678k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output down 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -35% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 23 | 1970 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1188 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1251 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CB | 6 | 405 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1334 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2664 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1359 | 1250 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 1988 | 65% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1367 | 1303 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 2196 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1370 | 1330 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CB | 3 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1617 | 1302 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 398 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ferencvárosi TC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1270 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ferencvárosi TC | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 281 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1324 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epaminondas Pantelakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Tomas Brecka Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €775k | €275k | fell |
| Luka Gucek Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Rocky Bushiri Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Murat Paluli Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Kasper Larsen Superliga · 2021 | 28 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Flávio Ramos Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Ferencváros | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Aarhus GF | Ferencváros | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Ferencváros | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Heracles Almelo | Ferencváros | Free / loan | €900k |
| 17 Jan 2019 | Feyenoord U21 | Heracles Almelo | €150k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Feyenoord | Feyenoord U21 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | ARC Yth. | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.