David Raum
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Raum's performance-implied value at EUR 6.7M-21.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.2M-21.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.9M-25.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €12.3M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2556 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.9M – €25.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -66% to -47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | LB | 30 | 2556 | 84% | 3 | 7 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 1486 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | LM | 22 | 1788 | 58% | 1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1492 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | LB | 31 | 2745 | 90% | 2 | 10 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1500 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | LB | 28 | 1688 | 55% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1491 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 32 | 2761 | 90% | 3 | 13 | 0.52 | 0.31 | 1525 | 1479 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 360 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 4 | 266 | 0 | 1 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 630 | 1 | 3 | 1728 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1817 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 533 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 264 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medhi Benatia Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Ramy Bensebaini Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Jérôme Roussillon Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €30.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Álex Moreno Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €18.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Domenico Criscito Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Chris Smalling Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €16.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2022 | Hoffenheim | Leipzig | €26.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Greuther Fürth | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2017 | Gr. Fürth U19 | Greuther Fürth | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Gr. Fürth U17 | Gr. Fürth U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Gr. Fürth Yth. | Gr. Fürth U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.