José Gayà
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates José Gayà's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-10.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2462 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -72% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 32 | 2462 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1485 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 23 | 1810 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1492 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 24 | 1797 | 53% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1486 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 31 | 2715 | 79% | 1 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1498 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 24 | 1874 | 55% | 2 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 1548 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 24 | 1989 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1542 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 35 | 3138 | 92% | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1533 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 34 | 2917 | 85% | 0 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1558 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 27 | 2089 | 61% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1558 | 1499 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 20 | 1441 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1560 | 1556 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 35 | 2920 | 85% | 1 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1566 | 1701 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1797 | 1609 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 120 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 7 | 552 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1675 |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1615 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 2 | 1553 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 389 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 4 | 315 | 0 | 1 | 1598 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 3 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Mata Ligue 1 · 2024 | 32 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Federico Ceccherini Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pablo Marí Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Franck Béria Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kevin Vogt Bundesliga · 2022 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Federico Balzaretti Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €3.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ignazio Abate Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2014 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.