Dani Ceballos

30 yrs · Central midfielder · Spain
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.4M – €8.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€6.3M – €16.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.7M – €4.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.0M – €13.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.4M – €8.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€6.3M – €16.2M
Projected value (24 months)€1.7M – €4.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dani Ceballos's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-16.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-8.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.37x the positional average in the league (482 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh85.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €4.0M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
482 (14% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
86 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1451
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.7M – €4.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -66% to -54%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 482 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaCM1648214%000.000.08145117450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaCM23121836%000.000.06149417640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaCM2058717%020.310.13142918671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaCM30156946%040.230.13149117370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaCM112688%000.000.09148218121.05
2020/21Arsenal FCPremier LeagueCM25161447%030.170.15151816881.19
2019/20Arsenal FCPremier LeagueCM24170050%020.110.12156416411.14
2018/19Real MadridLaligaCM23124636%300.220.13149816761.14
2017/18Real MadridLaligaCM1239712%200.450.13148518741.11
2016/17Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCM30233668%220.150.24158214191.11
2015/16Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCM34213162%020.080.17158914681.17
2013/14Real Betis BalompiéLaligaCM190%000.000.27159014511.19

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid4247001559
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Madrid18600—
2025/26SupercopaReal Madrid211001778
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9406011718
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid527401—
2024/25SupercopaReal Madrid260001695
2024/25Uefa Super CupReal Madrid12001709
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid3153101573
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid210500—
2023/24SupercopaReal Madrid219001688
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid420513—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid779001675
2022/23SupercopaReal Madrid240001651
2022/23Uefa Super CupReal Madrid15001595
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid537001859
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Madrid23401—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC12586001536
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC6311101517
2019/20Fa CupArsenal FC529610—
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Madrid643002—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid3185001566
2018/19Uefa Super CupReal Madrid144001768
2017/18Copa Del ReyReal Madrid541100—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid483001515
2017/18SupercopaReal Madrid110001843
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié19000—
2015/16Copa Del ReyReal Betis Balompié410100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Simone Padoin
Serie A · 2013
29€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Fernando
Premier League · 2017
30€10.0M€4.5Mfell
Roberto Gagliardini
Serie A · 2023
29€4.0M€1.4Mfell
Claudio Marchisio
Serie A · 2018
32€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Hernanes
Serie A · 2016
31€8.0M€2.5Mfell
Tiemoué Bakayoko
Serie A · 2022
28€10.0M€2.0Mfell
Sime Vrsaljko
Laliga · 2021
29€5.0M€4.0Mfell
Héctor Herrera
Laliga · 2022
32€5.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2021ArsenalReal MadridFree / loan€27.0M
25 Jul 2019Real MadridArsenalFree / loan€30.0M
14 Jul 2017Real BetisReal Madrid€16.5M€10.0M
1 Jul 2015Betis BReal BetisUnknown€2.5M
1 Jul 2014Betis U19Betis BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Real Betis Yth.Betis U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.