Lirim Qamili
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lirim Qamili's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (739 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 9.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €292k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 739 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.73
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €486k – €930k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -49% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 739 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RW | 15 | 739 | 37% | 5 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 1271 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | RW | 19 | 1614 | 82% | 8 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 1315 | 1062 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Hvidovre IF | Superliga | RW | 19 | 1435 | 72% | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 1312 | 1101 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AC Horsens | Superliga | RW | 7 | 75 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1302 | 1157 | 0.47 |
| 2020/21 | AC Horsens | Superliga | RW | 16 | 630 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 1276 | 1121 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 135 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Hvidovre IF | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Hvidovre IF | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | AC Horsens | 3 | 265 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | AC Horsens | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Hvidovre IF | 1 | 82 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigozie Udoji Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €750k | €350k | fell |
| Louis Moult Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Vyacheslav Churko Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Julián Bartolo Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Vitaliy Balashov Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €475k | €250k | fell |
| Emmanuel Sabbi Superliga · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €1.5M | rose |
| Oleksandr Filippov Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €750k | €200k | fell |
| Gerso Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2024 | Hvidovre | Sönderjyske | €225k | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | AC Horsens | Hvidovre | Unknown | €300k |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Hvidovre | AC Horsens | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hvidovre U19 | Hvidovre | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | BK Frem U19 | Hvidovre U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.