Nicolas Janvier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolas Janvier's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1532 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €412k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1532 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1254
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €366k – €731k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -22% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1532 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 26 | 1532 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1254 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 34 | 2042 | 63% | 1 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1277 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CM | 34 | 1603 | 47% | 4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 1298 | 1313 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 19 | 624 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1424 | 1387 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 34 | 1061 | 35% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1367 | 1399 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 16 | 411 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1284 | 1329 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1329 | 1488 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 75 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1413 | 1502 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 4 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1503 | 1438 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 3 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1410 | 1396 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef Aït Bennasser Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Charilaos Charisis Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Nicolaj Madsen Superliga · 2015 | 27 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Maksim Vityugov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Miguel Mellado Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Dimitrios Macheras Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Jon Toral Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €775k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2023 | Vit. Guimarães | Alanyaspor | €100k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | €300k |
| 20 Aug 2019 | Stade Rennais | Guimarães B | €50k | €300k |
| 11 Aug 2015 | Rennes U17 | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2013 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.