Rasmus Lauritsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rasmus Lauritsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 10.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €314k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 720 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1336
- Opponent strength
- 1236
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €384k – €818k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 213% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -59% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 720 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 8 | 720 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1236 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 10 | 645 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1217 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | CB | 12 | 828 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1277 | 1417 | 0.48 |
| 2018/19 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1517 | 65% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1324 | 1169 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1271 | 1447 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 295 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1425 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | Skive IK | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Sako Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Paulinho Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Vladimir Volkov Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Simon Deli Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
| Ivo Pinto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Mihály Korhut Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Mark Wilson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 30 | €400k | €325k | flat |
| Vegar Hedenstad Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2023 | Dinamo Zagreb | Bröndby IF | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Norrköping | Dinamo Zagreb | €1.9M | €1.2M |
| 11 Feb 2019 | Vejle BK | Norrköping | €200k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Skive IK | Vejle BK | Unknown | €200k |
| 6 Jan 2016 | Midtjylland | Skive IK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.