Matthijs de Ligt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matthijs de Ligt's performance-implied value at EUR 18.6M-44.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.6M-43.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.2M-29.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.3M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1170 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1609
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.2M – €29.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; team strength up (+112 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -54% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1170 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 13 | 1170 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1609 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2128 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1562 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1387 | 45% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 1460 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2403 | 79% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 1520 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2674 | 78% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1427 | 1623 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2221 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1435 | 1698 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2449 | 72% | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1436 | 1643 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1321 | 1746 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2914 | 95% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1312 | 1627 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 11 | 564 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 1342 | 1627 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 9 | 664 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 467 | 0 | 1 | 1725 |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 615 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 627 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 11 | 990 | 2 | 0 | 1730 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 348 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 197 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1412 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 9 | 795 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 256 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Stefan Savic Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Eric Bailly Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €35.0M | €17.5M | fell |
| Jordi Alba Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| David Luiz Premier League · 2014 | 27 | €26.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Phil Jones Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Willi Orbán Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Bayern Munich | Man Utd | €45.0M | €65.0M |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Juventus | Bayern Munich | €67.0M | €70.0M |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Ajax | Juventus | €85.5M | €75.0M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Abcoude Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.