Joelinton

The model rates Joelinton's performance-implied value at EUR 20.5M-37.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.0M-24.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-16.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1956 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1956 (57% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.14

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.14

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1631

Opponent strength

1592

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€6.8M – €16.6M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -76% to -44%).

• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.