Joël Drommel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joël Drommel's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -51% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1178 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1235 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1280 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | GK | 26 | 2340 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1334 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1364 | 1251 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | GK | 26 | 2268 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1238 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1325 | 1219 | 0.59 |
| 2015/16 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | GK | 12 | 1049 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1337 | 1348 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1480 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okan Kocuk Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Erwin Mulder Eredivisie · 2016 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2019 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Bruno Varela Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Stanislav Kritsyuk Liga Portugal · 2021 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Kévin Olimpa Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Vasilios Barkas Eredivisie · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Vagner Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sparta R. | PSV | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 15 Jul 2025 | PSV | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Twente | PSV | €3.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | IJsselmeerv U19 | FC Twente U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2011 | Almere City FC | IJsselmeerv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.