Orbelín Pineda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Orbelín Pineda's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1982 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1982 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1227
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; team strength up (+61 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -61% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | CM | 25 | 1982 | 85% | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 1227 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | CM | 24 | 1507 | 64% | 1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1236 | 1450 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | AM | 23 | 1551 | 66% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1268 | 1472 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | AM | 26 | 1936 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 1241 | 1424 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 7 | 93 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1469 | 1499 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 375 | 0 | 1 | 1449 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Mexico | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 359 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1415 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 382 | 1 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 339 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 284 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian Arão Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| John Lundstram Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vitaliy Buyalskyi Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Rasmus Falk Superliga · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Yann M'Vila Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergiy Sydorchuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Steven Defour Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €18.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Celta de Vigo | AEK Athens | €6.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | AEK Athens | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Celta de Vigo | AEK Athens | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 7 Jan 2022 | CD Cruz Azul | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Chivas | CD Cruz Azul | €10.6M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Querétaro FC | Chivas | €5.5M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Querétaro U20 | Querétaro FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Querétaro U17 | Querétaro U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.