Denis Adamov

28 yrs · Goalkeeper · Russia
AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €8.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €5.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €7.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €8.3M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €5.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Denis Adamov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-8.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 99

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average69.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.7M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationNeutral+4% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2340 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
69 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1597
Opponent strength
1314
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €5.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -43% to +32%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
63 (all positions)
Relative output kept
61%–143%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaGK26234087%000.000.00131415970.56
2024/25AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaGK432612%000.000.00121215580.55
2023/24AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaGK981030%000.000.00130714910.49
2022/23FK SochiPremier LigaGK17150256%000.000.00129813100.53
2021/22FK SochiPremier LigaGK1199037%000.000.00131914410.52
2019/20FK KrasnodarPremier LigaGK21606%000.000.00136314650.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg218000—
2024/25Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg12108000—
2023/24Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg763000—
2022/23Russian CupFK Sochi433000—
2020/21Russian CupFK Sochi19000—
2017/18Russian CupFK Krasnodar19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Matheus
Liga Portugal · 2020
28€2.8M€6.0Mrose
Yvon Mvogo
Eredivisie · 2021
27€4.5M€3.5Mfell
Denys Boyko
Premier Liga · 2014
26€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Jasper Cillessen
Eredivisie · 2014
25€5.0M€12.0Mrose
Mathew Ryan
Eredivisie · 2023
31€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Lovre Kalinic
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
28€6.5M€2.8Mfell
Fraser Forster
Scottish Premiership · 2020
32€6.5M€2.0Mfell
Stanislav Kritsyuk
Liga Portugal · 2016
26€4.0M€4.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jul 2023FK SochiZenit S-Pb€1.0M€900k
25 Feb 2021Krasnodar 2FK Sochi€600k€500k
1 Jul 2018Krasnodar IIKrasnodar 2Unknown€200k
1 Jul 2014Krasnodar U17Krasnodar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.