
Denis Adamov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denis Adamov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-8.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2340 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -43% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | GK | 4 | 326 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1212 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1502 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1298 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | GK | 11 | 990 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1319 | 1441 | 0.52 |
| 2019/20 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 160 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1363 | 1465 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €2.8M | €6.0M | rose |
| Yvon Mvogo Eredivisie · 2021 | 27 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Denys Boyko Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jasper Cillessen Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mathew Ryan Eredivisie · 2023 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Lovre Kalinic Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €6.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Fraser Forster Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 32 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Stanislav Kritsyuk Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2023 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | €1.0M | €900k |
| 25 Feb 2021 | Krasnodar 2 | FK Sochi | €600k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Krasnodar II | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.