Brad Lyons
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brad Lyons's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1988 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €200k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1988 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1202
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €161k – €338k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -38% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 29 | 1988 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 1202 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 30 | 2551 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1246 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 21 | 1637 | 55% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1255 | 1243 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 15 | 404 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1313 | 1144 | 0.40 |
| 2018/19 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 10 | 815 | 27% | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1332 | 1092 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1439 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Coleraine FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Valerianos Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Yevgen Zaporozhets Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Jon Sporn Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Orest Kuzyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Mark O'Hara Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Ross Callachan Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Radosław Murawski Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €850k | €1.0M | flat |
| Vykintas Slivka Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €500k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Kilmarnock FC | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Blackburn | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 May 2021 | Morecambe FC | Blackburn | Free / loan | €250k |
| 6 Jan 2021 | Blackburn | Morecambe FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 May 2019 | St. Mirren | Blackburn | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jan 2019 | Blackburn | St. Mirren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jan 2019 | Coleraine | Blackburn | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2019 | Blackburn | Coleraine | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Coleraine | Blackburn | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Coleraine U20 | Coleraine | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.