Philipp Treu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Philipp Treu's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-11.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.4M-24.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.7M-22.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2188 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.7M – €22.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+220 Elo); role change LM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -46% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RB | 28 | 2188 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1490 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | LM | 33 | 2885 | 94% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1502 | 1330 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 13 | 989 | 0 | 1 | 1497 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 4 | 261 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Matteo Darmian Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jeison Murillo Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Arthur Theate Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Kalidou Koulibaly Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €9.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Nico Elvedi Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jemerson Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €18.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €13.5M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | St. Pauli | Freiburg | €5.5M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | SC Freiburg II | St. Pauli | €500k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RB Leipzig U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | RB Leipzig Yth. | RB Leipzig U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | K'lautern Yth. | RB Leipzig Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sandhausen Yth. | K'lautern Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Wieblingen Jgd. | Sandhausen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.