Arthur Theate
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur Theate's performance-implied value at EUR 7.9M-23.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.8M-21.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.1M-18.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.0M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2144 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.1M – €18.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output up 251% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -59% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 2144 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1492 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2709 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1511 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2299 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1459 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 3129 | 91% | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1443 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2427 | 71% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1484 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | KV Oostende | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1330 | 1220 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KV Oostende | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2576 | 84% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1352 | 1315 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 889 | 0 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 8 | 640 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1477 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Carlos Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €10.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €13.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Domingos Duarte Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jemerson Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Matteo Darmian Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jeison Murillo Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Marvin Plattenhardt Bundesliga · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Danilho Doekhi Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2025 | Stade Rennais | Frankfurt | €13.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Frankfurt | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Stade Rennais | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Bologna | Stade Rennais | €19.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | KV Oostende | Bologna | €6.8M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Bologna | KV Oostende | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 26 Aug 2021 | KV Oostende | Bologna | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 13 Jul 2020 | Standard U21 | KV Oostende | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Aug 2019 | KRC Genk U21 | Standard U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KRC Genk U19 | KRC Genk U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Standard U17 | KRC Genk U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Standard Yth | Standard U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | KRC Genk Youth | Standard Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | KAS Eupen Youth | KRC Genk Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.