Nico Elvedi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nico Elvedi's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-9.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-6.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.7M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2967 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €6.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -69% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2967 | 97% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1495 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2136 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1515 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2485 | 81% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1505 | 1435 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2827 | 92% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1523 | 1499 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2432 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1529 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2537 | 83% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1534 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2619 | 86% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1540 | 1604 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2625 | 86% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1500 | 1528 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | RB | 33 | 2917 | 95% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1515 | 1521 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | RB | 25 | 2111 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1543 | 1549 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1548 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1546 | 1596 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 270 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 620 | 1 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1465 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Espino Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Brendan Chardonnet Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Cristiano Biraghi Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Giancarlo González Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.4M | fell |
| Joseph Aidoo Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €8.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Bartosz Bereszyński Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Emmanuel Agbadou Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Sébastien Corchia Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Zürich | Mönchengladbach | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | FC Zürich U21 | FC Zürich | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Zürich U18 | FC Zürich U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Zürich U16 | FC Zürich U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.