Tim Siersleben
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tim Siersleben's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1082 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €818k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -40% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1082 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1082 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1495 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1182 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1503 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 909 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1506 | 1424 | 1.01 |
| 2020/21 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 1 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1472 | 1613 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdelhamid El Kaoutari Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Ardian Ismajli Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Ismaël Traoré Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Davide Brivio Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €1.6M | €1.5M | flat |
| Syam Ben Youssef Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €1.3M | €900k | fell |
| Igor Silva Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jacopo Sala Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Vincent Muratori Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €900k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Wolfsburg | Heidenheim | €500k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Heidenheim | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Wolfsburg | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Wolfsburg II | Wolfsburg | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Wolfsburg U19 | Wolfsburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Wolfsburg U17 | Wolfsburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2016 | Magdeburg U17 | Wolfsburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | 1.FC Magdeburg | Magdeburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.