Thibaud Verlinden
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thibaud Verlinden's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1189 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €773k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1189 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1329
- Opponent strength
- 1388
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €374k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; changed club; team strength up (+155 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -36% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1189 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 21 | 1189 | 44% | 2 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 1388 | 1329 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Beerschot VA | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 21 | 1756 | 65% | 2 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.62 | 1405 | 1144 | 0.63 |
| 2024/25 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 5 | 356 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 1349 | 1323 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 5 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael de Leeuw Eredivisie · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €2.3M | rose |
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.1M | fell |
| Joel Tagueu Liga Portugal · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Salvador Agra Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Dmitriy Poloz Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Fredy Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €800k | €525k | fell |
| Nikola Storm Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Silvester van der Water Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Beerschot VA | OH Leuven | €1.2M | €1.7M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dunajska Streda | Beerschot VA | Free / loan | €250k |
| 3 Sept 2021 | Fortuna Sittard | Dunajska Streda | Free / loan | €250k |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Stoke City | Fortuna Sittard | Unknown | €250k |
| 2 Jan 2020 | Bolton | Stoke City | Free / loan | €250k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Stoke City | Bolton | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Stoke City U23 | Stoke City | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | St. Pauli | Stoke City U23 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Stoke City U23 | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Stoke U18 | Stoke City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Standard Yth | Stoke U18 | €40k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Club Brugge Yth | Standard Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.