Fatih Aksoy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fatih Aksoy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 15.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €320k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 833 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1218
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €419k – €897k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output up 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -49% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 833 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 18 | 833 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1218 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1579 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1274 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 962 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1317 | 1313 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 1918 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1301 | 1261 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2626 | 77% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1257 | 1322 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1618 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1253 | 1260 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | DM | 23 | 1740 | 57% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1337 | 1318 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | RB | 8 | 327 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.19 | 1377 | 1302 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 2 | 95 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1365 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 3 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1333 | 1634 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Alanyaspor | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1225 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koray Günter Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Khadim Rassoul Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Igor Kalinin Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Onur Bulut Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €800k | €3.5M | rose |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.1M | €300k | fell |
| Samba Camara Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Roderick Miranda Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2020 | Besiktas | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Sivasspor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €800k |
| 15 Jan 2019 | Besiktas | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Besiktas U21 | Besiktas | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Besiktas U19 | Besiktas U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Besiktas U17 | Besiktas U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Sept 2013 | Karabekir Jgd | Besiktas U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Sept 2012 | A.Hisari IY Yth | Karabekir Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.