
Owen Wijndal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Owen Wijndal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1356 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -45% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1356 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 19 | 1356 | 44% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1271 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 10 | 369 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1236 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 20 | 1547 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1362 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 2 | 46 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1211 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 20 | 1343 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1310 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2688 | 88% | 1 | 10 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 1343 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 6 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1351 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 24 | 2107 | 94% | 1 | 7 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 1349 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 8 | 323 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1286 | 1459 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 7 | 471 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1362 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1611 | 1369 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 422 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 111 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Royal Antwerp FC | 6 | 452 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 1422 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1682 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 1641 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 348 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 570 | 0 | 1 | 1360 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 108 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfons Sampsted Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Denys Popov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Christian Luyindama Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €5.5M | €800k | fell |
| Mark McKenzie Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Óscar Duarte Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Cristián Borja Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €2.8M | €3.0M | flat |
| Anthony Vanden Borre Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Diego Laxalt Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 28 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Royal Antwerp | Ajax | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 5 Sept 2023 | Ajax | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 12 Jul 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | Ajax | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AZ U17 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Haarlem Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.