Owen Wijndal

26 yrs · Left-back · Netherlands
Ajax Amsterdam · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€865k – €2.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€912k – €3.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €2.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€865k – €2.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€912k – €3.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Owen Wijndal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 82

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage40.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.2M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €17.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1356 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
40 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1405
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.9M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -45% to +13%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1356 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieLB19135644%110.130.08127114050.43
2024/25Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieLB1036912%000.000.05123615050.50
2023/24Royal Antwerp FCJupiler Pro LeagueLB20154757%100.060.07136214920.63
2023/24Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieLB2462%000.000.06121114390.48
2022/23Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieLB20134344%020.130.06131015930.58
2021/22AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB31268888%1100.370.22134314960.60
2020/21AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB343060100%160.210.13135115570.56
2019/20AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB24210794%170.340.17134915420.62
2018/19AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB832311%000.000.06128614590.61
2017/18AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB747115%000.000.07136214890.59
2016/17AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB1903%000.000.16161113690.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam6422001604
2025/26Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam211110—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam395001581
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRoyal Antwerp FC6452001638
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2159011422
2022/23Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam424000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam276011682
2022/23Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam162021641
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam145001631
2021/22Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar434801—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar5450101574
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar2210001522
2020/21Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar19000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar8720001552
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar6570011360
2019/20Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar17800—
2018/19Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar210801—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alfons Sampsted
Eredivisie · 2024
26€2.3M€1.5Mfell
Denys Popov
Premier Liga · 2023
24€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Christian Luyindama
Super Lig · 2021
27€5.5M€800kfell
Mark McKenzie
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
23€3.5M€6.0Mrose
Óscar Duarte
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
25€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Cristián Borja
Liga Portugal · 2020
27€2.8M€3.0Mflat
Anthony Vanden Borre
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Diego Laxalt
Scottish Premiership · 2021
28€3.2M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2024Royal AntwerpAjaxFree / loan€5.5M
5 Sept 2023AjaxRoyal AntwerpFree / loan€8.0M
12 Jul 2022AZ AlkmaarAjax€10.0M€12.0M
1 Jul 2017AZ Alkmaar U21AZ AlkmaarUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2016AZ U17AZ Alkmaar U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015AZ Alkmaar Yth.AZ U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Haarlem YouthAZ Alkmaar Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.