Mark McKenzie
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mark McKenzie's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-9.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2405 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €7.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -47% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2405 | 79% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1496 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2497 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1453 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1524 | 1535 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 21 | 1885 | 70% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1377 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2696 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1305 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 18 | 1305 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1342 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 8 | 518 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1380 | 1414 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1404 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 3 | 181 | 0 | 1 | 1535 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Colley Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Lucas Lima Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €6.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Giovanni Marchese Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Aleksey Kozlov Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Emmanuel Agbadou Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €16.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2024 | Genk | Toulouse | €3.0M | €6.0M |
| 7 Jan 2021 | Philadelphia | Genk | €6.6M | €4.0M |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Union II | Philadelphia | Free / loan | €500k |
| 22 Mar 2019 | Philadelphia | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | €475k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Bethlehem Steel | Philadelphia | Free / loan | €125k |
| 16 Mar 2018 | Philadelphia | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Jan 2018 | Wake Forest | Philadelphia | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Ph. Union Acad. | Wake Forest | Unknown | €75k |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Bethlehem Steel | Ph. Union Acad. | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Mar 2017 | Ph. Union Acad. | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2016 | Bethlehem Steel | Ph. Union Acad. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Mar 2016 | Ph. Union Acad. | Bethlehem Steel | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.