Gorka Guruzeta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gorka Guruzeta's performance-implied value at EUR 6.2M-10.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (2370 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2370 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -68% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2370 | 69% | 10 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 1475 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 36 | 1842 | 54% | 7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 1491 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 32 | 2241 | 66% | 14 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.67 | 1501 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1421 | 42% | 6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1489 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | ST | 4 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1485 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1514 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1502 | 1569 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 469 | 5 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 407 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 671 | 1 | 2 | 1538 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 204 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 305 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 231 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aílton Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €3.6M | €2.5M | fell |
| Takuma Asano Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ayoze Pérez Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alassane Pléa Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Karim Onisiwo Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ludovic Obraniak Ligue 1 · 2014 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Yuya Osako Bundesliga · 2020 | 30 | €3.5M | €900k | fell |
| Éder Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2022 | SD Amorebieta | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €600k |
| 16 Jul 2021 | CE Sabadell | SD Amorebieta | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Bilbao Athletic | CE Sabadell | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Antiguoko U19 | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.