
Dani de Wit
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani de Wit's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2151 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2151 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1306
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club; league level down (-205 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | AM | 27 | 2151 | 70% | 7 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 1306 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Bochum | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1145 | 37% | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1513 | 1326 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 32 | 2520 | 82% | 10 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 1356 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 18 | 1192 | 39% | 5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 1370 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 33 | 2841 | 93% | 8 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 1338 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 20 | 1209 | 40% | 4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 1298 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 22 | 1529 | 68% | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 1350 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 3 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1312 | 1746 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1653 | 1239 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1296 | 1627 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 6 | 446 | 1 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 4 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 348 | 0 | 1 | 1284 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 511 | 4 | 1 | 1340 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 87 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 350 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1596 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 652 | 0 | 1 | 1551 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 248 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — | |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1762 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1653 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1562 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enis Bardhi Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €6.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ömer Bayram Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €2.8M | €250k | fell |
| Petros Mantalos Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Damian Szymański Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €1.8M | €3.5M | rose |
| Emre Akbaba Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Birger Verstraete Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Timofey Margasov Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Anton Shvets Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | VfL Bochum | Utrecht | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Jul 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.