Dani de Wit

28 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM) · Netherlands
FC Utrecht · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€963k – €3.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.5M – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.1M – €2.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€963k – €3.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.5M – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dani de Wit's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2151 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 74

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average56.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.9M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2151 (70% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.46
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
56 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1352
Opponent strength
1306
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club; league level down (-205 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC UtrechtEredivisieAM27215170%740.460.36130613520.43
2024/25VfL BochumBundesligaAM28114537%220.310.45151313260.94
2023/24AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM32252082%1030.460.31135614410.48
2022/23AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM18119239%500.380.28137015300.58
2021/22AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM33284193%840.380.28133814960.60
2020/21AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM20120940%430.520.27129815570.56
2019/20AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM22152968%320.290.21135015420.62
2018/19Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieAM3321%000.000.14131217460.61
2018/19Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieCM1110%000.000.42165312390.61
2017/18Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCM150%000.000.10129616270.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Utrecht6446101498
2025/26Knvb BekerFC Utrecht216710—
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Utrecht488001342
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar4348011284
2023/24Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar333010—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar6511411340
2022/23Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar18710—
2021/22Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar435011—
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar2180001540
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar4360011596
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar2210001522
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar8652011551
2019/20Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar324821—
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam24001476
2018/19Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam23100—
2018/19Knvb Beker11600—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam116001762
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich115001653
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv15001641
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam13001562

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Enis Bardhi
Super Lig · 2024
29€6.5M€2.5Mfell
Ömer Bayram
Super Lig · 2020
29€2.8M€250kfell
Petros Mantalos
Super League 1 · 2019
28€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Damian Szymański
Super League 1 · 2022
27€1.8M€3.5Mrose
Emre Akbaba
Super Lig · 2022
30€4.0M€1.3Mfell
Birger Verstraete
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
28€2.8M€1.8Mfell
Timofey Margasov
Premier Liga · 2021
29€1.5M€1.2Mfell
Anton Shvets
Premier Liga · 2023
30€2.5M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025VfL BochumUtrechtFree / loan€2.5M
3 Jul 2024AZ AlkmaarVfL BochumFree / loan€5.0M
30 Aug 2019AjaxAZ Alkmaar€2.0M€1.0M
1 Jan 2019Ajax U21AjaxUnknown€1.0M
1 Jul 2017Ajax U19Ajax U21Unknown€75k
1 Jul 2015Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Dani de Wit · MoneyballAI