Oliver Burke
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Burke's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-9.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1674 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1674 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €969k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; changed club; team strength down (-90 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -34% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1674 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 1674 | 55% | 6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.48 | 1464 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 25 | 898 | 29% | 5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 1483 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RM | 1 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1785 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 15 | 254 | 8% | 2 | 1 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 1585 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | ST | 25 | 1273 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 1576 | 1390 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RW | 31 | 1421 | 42% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 1554 | 1452 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 11 | 607 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.36 | 1264 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | West Bromwich Albion | Premier League | RW | 15 | 358 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 1583 | 1426 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 25 | 617 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 1510 | 1594 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 46 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 4 | 70 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 247 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Fletcher Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Rubén Sobrino Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Ishak Belfodil Bundesliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.7M | fell |
| Ola Toivonen Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €2.8M | €2.8M | flat |
| Vladislav Ignatjev Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Rubén García Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Rachid Alioui Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €4.0M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Birmingham | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Werder Bremen | Birmingham | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Millwall | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Werder Bremen | Millwall | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sheff Utd | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 31 May 2022 | Millwall | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 21 Jan 2022 | Sheff Utd | Millwall | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 9 Sept 2020 | West Brom | Sheff Utd | €6.5M | €4.8M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | Alavés | West Brom | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | West Brom | Alavés | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Celtic | West Brom | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Jan 2019 | West Brom | Celtic | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 25 Aug 2017 | Leipzig | West Brom | €15.2M | €7.0M |
| 29 Aug 2016 | Nott'm Forest | Leipzig | €15.2M | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Nottingham U18 | Nott'm Forest | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Mar 2015 | Bradford | Nottingham U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2015 | Nottingham U18 | Bradford | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Nottingham Yth. | Nottingham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.