Tom Dele-Bashiru
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom Dele-Bashiru's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2362 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €624k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2362 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1286
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €895k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -56% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 28 | 2362 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1286 | 1160 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Reading FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 2 | 136 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alen Halilovic Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Jamie McGrath Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Hamidou Traore Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Martín Tonso Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Halil Akbunar Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €1.1M | €3.5M | rose |
| Afriyie Acquah Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2022 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Genclerbirligi | Watford | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Watford | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2022 | Reading | Watford | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Aug 2021 | Watford | Reading | Free / loan | €700k |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Man City U23 | Watford | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.