Noah Okafor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Okafor's performance-implied value at EUR 7.5M-25.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.7M-31.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.4M-30.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.70x the positional average in the league (1569 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.3M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1569 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.52
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.69
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1594
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.4M – €30.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -70% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1569 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | LW | 28 | 1569 | 46% | 8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 1594 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 11 | 412 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1446 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | LW | 4 | 36 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1499 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 28 | 871 | 25% | 6 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 1422 | 1625 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 314 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 102 | 0 | 1 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 5 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 3 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1695 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Lys Mousset Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Kelechi Iheanacho Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Benito Raman Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pedro Neto Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €55.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Hélder Costa Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | AC Milan | Leeds | €19.0M | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Napoli | AC Milan | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | AC Milan | Napoli | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 22 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | AC Milan | €15.5M | €20.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Basel | Salzburg | €11.2M | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | FC Basel U21 | Basel | Unknown | €400k |
| 17 Oct 2017 | FC Basel U18 | FC Basel U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Basel U16 | FC Basel U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Basel Yth. | FC Basel U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.