Callum Hudson-Odoi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Callum Hudson-Odoi's performance-implied value at EUR 30.3M-46.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.7M-40.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-36.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1848 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.2M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1848 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €36.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+63 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -55% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LW | 30 | 1848 | 54% | 3 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 1611 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LW | 31 | 2205 | 64% | 5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1573 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LW | 29 | 1857 | 54% | 8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 1582 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 14 | 604 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 1475 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 15 | 966 | 28% | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 1528 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 23 | 1058 | 31% | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 1549 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 22 | 851 | 25% | 1 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.36 | 1547 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 9 | 349 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1535 | 1750 | 1.22 |
| 2018/19 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 1 | 42 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1712 | 1492 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 2 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1482 | 1667 | 1.15 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 11 | 714 | 1 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 51 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 285 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 333 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 468 | 1 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 289 | 1 | 2 | 1599 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 192 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 339 | 2 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 276 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 261 | 0 | 1 | 1776 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 321 | 4 | 2 | 1531 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Videoton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1831 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | BATE Borisov | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofiane Feghouli Laliga · 2015 | 26 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Cédric Bakambu Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Pépé Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Christian Benteke Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €27.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Yevgen Konoplyanka Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nicola Sansone Laliga · 2017 | 26 | €16.0M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Chelsea | Nott'm Forest | €3.5M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Leverkusen | Chelsea | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Chelsea | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.