
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Maksimenko's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -59% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1330 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1308 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 24 | 2115 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1322 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 3 | 270 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1330 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1330 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1348 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1390 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | GK | 23 | 2002 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1392 | 1444 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 300 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piet Velthuizen Eredivisie · 2014 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Marco Bizot Eredivisie · 2019 | 28 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Hendrik Van Crombrugge Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 27 | €5.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| David Jensen Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
| Matheus Liga Portugal · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Eiji Kawashima Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €275k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | V. Ponedelnik | Akademia FCSM | €7k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.