Aleksandr Maksimenko

28 yrs · Goalkeeper · Russia
FK Spartak Moskva · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.0M – €8.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.7M – €4.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.7M – €7.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.0M – €8.5M
Projected value (24 months)€1.7M – €4.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Aleksandr Maksimenko's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 91

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average70.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.6M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €13.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2700 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
70 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1443
Opponent strength
1330
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.7M – €4.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -59% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
63 (all positions)
Relative output kept
61%–143%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK302700100%000.000.00133014430.56
2024/25FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK27243090%000.000.00130814700.55
2023/24FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK24211578%000.000.00132213830.49
2022/23FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK327010%000.000.00133013940.53
2021/22FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK16144053%000.000.00133013590.52
2020/21FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK29261097%000.000.00134814200.55
2019/20FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK29261097%000.000.00139013920.63
2018/19FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaGK23200274%000.000.00139214440.69

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva327000—
2024/25Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva327000—
2023/24Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva545000—
2022/23Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva1199000—
2021/22Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva436000—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva3270001573
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva2180001627
2020/21Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva218000—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva4360001440
2019/20Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva330001—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva6540001499
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva2180001553
2018/19Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva19000—
2017/18Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Piet Velthuizen
Eredivisie · 2014
28€4.0M€1.5Mfell
Ilya Lantratov
Premier Liga · 2024
29€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Marco Bizot
Eredivisie · 2019
28€4.5M€5.0Mflat
Nick Olij
Eredivisie · 2023
28€3.0M€3.5Mflat
Hendrik Van Crombrugge
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
27€5.5M€5.5Mflat
David Jensen
Eredivisie · 2019
27€2.5M€600kfell
Matheus
Liga Portugal · 2021
29€6.0M€6.0Mflat
Eiji Kawashima
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
30€3.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2018Spartak 2Spartak MoscowUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2016Spartak IISpartak 2Unknown€275k
1 Jan 2015Akademia FCSMSpartak IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013V. PonedelnikAkademia FCSM€7kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Aleksandr Maksimenko · MoneyballAI