Federico Baschirotto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Federico Baschirotto's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-8.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2541 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -67% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2541 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1507 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1506 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3295 | 96% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1500 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1465 | 1323 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Thomas Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Dylan Bronn Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Riccardo Gagliolo Serie A · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €800k | fell |
| Bakaye Dibassy Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vital Nsimba Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Bram Nuytinck Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €2.8M | €2.8M | flat |
| Matthieu Udol Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2025 | Lecce | Cremonese | €3.0M | €3.6M |
| 12 Jul 2022 | Ascoli | Lecce | €280k | €450k |
| 26 Jul 2021 | Viterbese | Ascoli | €200k | €175k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Cremonese | Viterbese | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Vigor Carpaneto | Cremonese | Free / loan | €100k |
| 2 Jul 2018 | Cremonese | Vigor Carpaneto | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Cuneo | Cremonese | Free / loan | €75k |
| 14 Jul 2017 | Cremonese | Cuneo | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Forlì | Cremonese | Free / loan | €75k |
| 16 Aug 2016 | Cremonese | Forlì | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Seregno | Cremonese | Free / loan | €75k |
| 25 Aug 2015 | Cremonese U19 | Seregno | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Legnago Gio. | Cremonese U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Amatori Nogara | Legnago Gio. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Chievo Youth | Amatori Nogara | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Amatori Nogara | Chievo Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.