Lucas Perri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Perri's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-20.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-14.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-8.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1440 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1641
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €8.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 55 pts; changed club; league level up (+149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -57% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1440 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | GK | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1641 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1455 | 1571 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 11 | 1020 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Ryan Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Joe Hart Premier League · 2018 | 31 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Diego Alves Laliga · 2016 | 31 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Fraser Forster Premier League · 2018 | 30 | €15.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Marko Dmitrovic Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Edouard Mendy Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Adrián San Miguel Premier League · 2017 | 30 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Asmir Begovic Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | Lyon | Leeds | €16.0M | €10.0M |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Botafogo | Lyon | €6.5M | €8.0M |
| 17 Aug 2022 | São Paulo | Botafogo | €350k | €1.0M |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Náutico | São Paulo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 May 2022 | São Paulo | Náutico | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Crystal Palace | São Paulo | Free / loan | €250k |
| 25 Jan 2019 | São Paulo | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.