Dominik Oroz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dominik Oroz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €509k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1631 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €532k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 85% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -45% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1631 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1631 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1313 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1251 | 46% | 4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1300 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 1898 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1359 | 1158 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 16 | 1016 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1408 | 1342 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 21 | 810 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 1352 | 1379 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | RM | 7 | 265 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1316 | 1394 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 295 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 3 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Addy Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Daniel Anyembe Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €900k | €2.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Filin Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Dakonam Djené Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €25.0M | rose |
| Daan Van Gijseghem Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Konstantin Pliev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Stuart Findlay Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Freire Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Vitesse | KS Samara | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Sturm Graz | Vitesse | Free / loan | €400k |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Vitesse | Sturm Graz | Free / loan | €600k |
| 5 Jan 2021 | FC Liefering | Vitesse | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jul 2017 | First Vienna FC | AKA Salzb. U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Vienna Yth. | First Vienna FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Mar 2015 | Sportklub Jgd. | Vienna Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Aug 2013 | Austria Yth. | Sportklub Jgd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Nov 2007 | Sportklub Jgd. | Austria Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.