Hiroki Ito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hiroki Ito's performance-implied value at EUR 8.8M-19.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.3M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.0M-26.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 921 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1430
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.0M – €26.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -52% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 921 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 1430 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 6 | 249 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.10 | 1530 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2232 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1505 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2561 | 84% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1530 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2348 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1536 | 1425 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Martínez Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Álvaro Odriozola Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nathan Aké Premier League · 2022 | 27 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Kwadwo Asamoah Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €11.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Layvin Kurzawa Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €35.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Fabian Delph Premier League · 2018 | 29 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Stuttgart | Bayern Munich | €23.5M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Júbilo Iwata | Stuttgart | €400k | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Stuttgart | Júbilo Iwata | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 4 Jul 2021 | Júbilo Iwata | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €550k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Nagoya Grampus | Júbilo Iwata | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Júbilo Iwata | Nagoya Grampus | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Júbilo U18 | Júbilo Iwata | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2015 | Júbilo Jg | Júbilo U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.