Nathan Aké
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nathan Aké's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-16.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.7M-16.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-6.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 89.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.4M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 688 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1584
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €6.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -72% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 688 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 18 | 688 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1584 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 10 | 683 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1586 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2044 | 60% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1536 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 26 | 1877 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1567 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 14 | 920 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 1499 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 10 | 797 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1543 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2505 | 73% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1584 | 1415 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3412 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1548 | 1495 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3353 | 98% | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1549 | 1485 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 10 | 733 | 21% | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 1578 | 1458 | 1.07 |
| 2016/17 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 2 | 98 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.07 | 1440 | 1756 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Watford FC | Premier League | LB | 24 | 1875 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1507 | 1460 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | DM | 1 | 17 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1447 | 1754 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | DM | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1352 | 1747 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 3 | 92 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1600 | 1694 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 5 | 238 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 4 | 285 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 382 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 302 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 608 | 0 | 0 | 1741 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 174 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 321 | 1 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 318 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1442 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Matip Premier League · 2024 | 33 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jesús Gámez Laliga · 2016 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dejan Lovren Premier League · 2020 | 31 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Joleon Lescott Premier League · 2014 | 32 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Samuel Umtiti Laliga · 2021 | 28 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Eric Bailly Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Pablo Marí Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Javi Martínez Bundesliga · 2020 | 32 | €13.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2020 | Bournemouth | Man City | €45.3M | €28.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | €22.8M | €8.0M |
| 8 Jan 2017 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 31 May 2016 | Watford | Chelsea | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 14 Aug 2015 | Chelsea | Watford | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 22 Apr 2015 | Reading | Chelsea | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 25 Mar 2015 | Chelsea | Reading | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Feyenoord U17 | Chelsea U18 | €800k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | ADO Youth | Feyenoord Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.