Rodri

30 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Spain
Manchester City · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
38/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€50.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€18.8M – €45.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€14.0M – €30.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€14.6M – €33.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€31.8M – €11.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€18.8M – €45.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€14.0M – €30.1M
Projected value (24 months)€14.6M – €33.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€50.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rodri's performance-implied value at EUR 14.0M-30.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.8M-45.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.6M-33.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.39x the positional average in the league (1514 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 38

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite94th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €25.1M vs market €50.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-55% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €130M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1514 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
94 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1809
Opponent strength
1624
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€14.6M – €33.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -80% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1514 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM21151444%100.060.05162418091.30
2024/25Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM3732%000.000.07160217491.23
2023/24Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM34293886%890.520.20155918931.14
2022/23Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM36292185%260.250.11154619151.23
2021/22Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM33288884%720.280.12156618661.17
2020/21Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM34274880%220.130.07155618831.19
2019/20Manchester CityPremier LeagueDM35248673%320.180.09158918481.14
2018/19Atlético de MadridLaligaDM34274280%310.130.09154217361.14
2017/18Villarreal CFLaligaDM37322894%130.110.12154515691.11
2016/17Villarreal CFLaligaDM2383724%010.110.09154916231.11
2015/16Villarreal CFLaligaCM3943%000.000.18162616301.17

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City5347001658
2025/26World CupSpain326700—
2025/26Fa CupManchester City312210—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City190001800
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City8698131676
2023/24Fa CupManchester City436001—
2023/24Community ShieldManchester City190001726
2023/24Uefa Super CupManchester City190011568
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City12996201704
2022/23Fa CupManchester City430400—
2022/23Community ShieldManchester City190001881
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City10842001704
2021/22Fa CupManchester City217300—
2021/22Community ShieldManchester City125001585
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City10785001627
2020/21Fa CupManchester City423003—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City8626001656
2019/20Fa CupManchester City414800—
2019/20Community ShieldManchester City190001928
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8606001658
2018/19Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid425900—
2018/19Uefa Super CupAtlético de Madrid171001885
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueVillarreal CF6458011503
2017/18Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF420600—
2016/17Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF436001—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueVillarreal CF4192101577
2015/16Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF323700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Arda Turan
Laliga · 2017
30€24.0M€1.0Mfell
Moussa Sissoko
Premier League · 2018
29€18.0M€20.0Mflat
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Premier League · 2020
27€28.0M€16.0Mfell
Naby Keïta
Premier League · 2022
27€25.0M€2.0Mfell
Marcel Sabitzer
Premier League · 2023
29€20.0M€8.0Mfell
Mateo Kovacic
Premier League · 2019
25€35.0M€45.0Mrose
Adam Lallana
Premier League · 2019
31€15.0M€4.0Mfell
İlkay Gündoğan
Premier League · 2018
28€40.0M€40.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Jul 2019AtléticoMan City€70.0M€80.0M
1 Jul 2018VillarrealAtlético€20.0M€25.0M
1 Jul 2016Villarreal CF BVillarrealUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Villarreal U19Villarreal CF BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Atl. Madrid U17Villarreal U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Atlético Yth.Atl. Madrid U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Majad. YouthAtlético Yth.€1.5MData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.