Pablo Fornals
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Fornals's performance-implied value at EUR 11.2M-27.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-6.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.68x the positional average in the league (2866 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2866 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €6.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; relative output up 139% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -59% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 37 | 2866 | 84% | 9 | 6 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 1477 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1838 | 54% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1512 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 15 | 1154 | 34% | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 1463 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | AM | 15 | 419 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1499 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | AM | 32 | 1503 | 44% | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1566 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | West Ham United | Premier League | LM | 36 | 2802 | 82% | 6 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1580 | 1580 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | West Ham United | Premier League | LM | 33 | 2584 | 76% | 5 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 1576 | 1600 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | West Ham United | Premier League | LM | 36 | 2179 | 64% | 2 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 1598 | 1486 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | AM | 35 | 2481 | 73% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1534 | 1569 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | AM | 35 | 2623 | 77% | 3 | 12 | 0.51 | 0.43 | 1531 | 1569 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Málaga CF | Laliga | AM | 32 | 2673 | 78% | 6 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1578 | 1516 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Málaga CF | Laliga | AM | 27 | 1295 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 1575 | 1536 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 11 | 689 | 0 | 2 | 1483 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 154 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1274 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 5 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | West Ham United | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 12 | 759 | 0 | 2 | 1597 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 133 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 179 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 65 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 876 | 3 | 3 | 1542 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 502 | 1 | 1 | 1481 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 4 | 212 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Málaga CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Málaga CF | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Noboa Premier Liga · 2016 | 31 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mikel Vesga Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng Bundesliga · 2018 | 31 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Grischa Prömel Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Mark Noble Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | West Ham | Real Betis | €8.0M | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Villarreal | West Ham | €28.0M | €25.0M |
| 24 Jul 2017 | Málaga CF | Villarreal | €12.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atl. Malagueño | Málaga CF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Castellón U19 | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Villarreal Yth. | Castellón U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.