Bilal Bayazıt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bilal Bayazıt's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €826k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -34% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1268 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 25 | 2250 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1302 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1302 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 30 | 2693 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1293 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | GK | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1255 | 1216 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gökhan Akkan Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Giorgi Loria Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Evgeniy Latyshonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Nordin Bakker Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Filip Djukic Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Antonio Donnarumma Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| İrfan Can Eğribayat Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Etienne Vaessen Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2021 | Vitesse | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vitesse U21 | Vitesse | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitesse U19 | Vitesse U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vitesse Youth | Vitesse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Vitesse Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Ajax Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Zeeburgia Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.