Etienne Vaessen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Etienne Vaessen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2513 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1248
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €735k – €1.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -56% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | GK | 29 | 2513 | 82% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1289 | 1248 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | GK | 30 | 2645 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1356 | 1193 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1354 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1337 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2019/20 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | GK | 24 | 2112 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1379 | 1174 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Günay Güvenç Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
| Mamadou Samassa Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Vasilios Barkas Eredivisie · 2024 | 30 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Munir El Kajoui Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2023 | 31 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Benjamin Siegrist Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 30 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Sammy Bossut Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 31 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | RKC Waalwijk | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | WSC | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.